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The Ministry of Industry predicts Vietnam will have to import 3.85 million tons of fertilizer this year to meet the estimated 4.2% stronger demand of 7.3 million tons.

Topping the most-wanted list in the country is urea, whose demand the ministry estimates at 2.14 million tons, followed by 1.65 million tons of NPK and 1.1 million tons of phosphate.

Since Vietnam's fertilizer plants can only supply 145,000 tons of urea annually, and no diammonium phosphate (DAP) whatsoever, the 2003 import estimates include nearly two million tons of the first and 700,000 tons of the second.

No plain phosphate or NPK will need to be purchased from abroad since local production is sufficient to meet demand.

The biggest domestic manufacturer of phosphate fertilizer and a major NPK producer is the Vietnam Chemical Corporation (Vinachem), which expects to supply 1.1 million tons of phosphate and 1.16 million tons of NPK this year.

The other good news is that fertilizer imports look set to decline within three years as Vinachem and PetroVietnam are building two plants able to make 1.6 million tons of urea and 400,000 tons of DAP fertilizer a year.

Last year's spending on fertilizer imports was US$464 million and included US$196 million for 1.7 million tons of urea.